They incorporated these factors into estimates of flood resilience, which allows strengths and gaps in more than 300 communities across 30 countries to be identified. IIASA scientists working with the Zürich Flood Resilience Alliance, a partnership of researchers, NGOs and the private sector, including the Zurich Insurance Foundation, identified as many as 44 contributing factors - from early warning systems to inhabitants’ educational levels and the state of nearby natural habitats.
There is much more to resilience than government finance, of course. They could also be used to set up financial schemes that would pool flood risk globally, with countries contributing according to their wealth or their carbon emissions. Using the so-called CATSIM Framework, these results can help governments embed this information into policy. Afghanistan will be struggling to finance recovery from even a two-yearly flood - Albania will struggle every 13 years, on average. Later this century, things will however change for the worse as both flood risks and exposure intensify. Albania, therefore, should withstand even athousand-year flood. In comparison, Albania faces less flood risk because of its geography and, although it has more expensive infrastructure, it has wider financial options. As a result, it would struggle to recover from any flood greater than those that strike every 50 years. But Afghanistan’s sources of finance are likely limited to loans and humanitarian assistance. For a country such as Afghanistan, the cost might be less than that of a European country because of its geography and less expensive infrastructure. They also assessed the means available to pay for that damage. They assessed the cost of the potential damage for a range of flood sizes, from those that occur every few years to more biblical, once-in-a-millennium devastation. Do they have reserve funds, insurance, or access to credit? Can they divert money from elsewhere? It depends, of course, on the amount of damage, but until now analysts have considered “average disasters” instead of breaking them down into crises large and small.įor a more nuanced look, IIASA researcher Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler led a group that considered risk “thresholds” across 200 governments.
One critical factor is whether governments can finance disaster recovery. The task is ripe for systems analysis, and IIASA scientists have ingenious approaches. Yet measurement is vital to identify strengths and weaknesses and chart progress. It is tricky to measure, and hard to compare different communities. The ability to recoup after disaster depends on multiple factors, from the size of a community’s sandbag store to the warmth of its neighbourly relations.
0 kommentar(er)
